My apologies for the delay in updates - I am back now after grading + vacation!

Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 18 2021 10124 44151 321 92 442 697
January 19 2021 10133 44234 322 92 413 669
January 20 2021 10177 44372 322 92 388 629
January 21 2021 10233 44497 322 95 424 603
January 22 2021 10271 44619 323 97 415 589
January 23 2021 10311 44728 323 97 390 591
January 24 2021 10350 44848 324 97 369 561
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 3.1 8.4% 31 0.27% 41 0.36%
10-19 7 4.9 13.6% 50 0.37% 77 0.57%
20-29 6 7.3 21.4% 79 0.38% 116 0.55%
30-39 6 5.6 16.3% 60 0.44% 83 0.61%
40-49 2 5.4 14.1% 52 0.5% 76 0.73%
50-59 5 3.3 9.8% 36 0.29% 71 0.57%
60-69 2 2.9 9.5% 35 0.3% 57 0.5%
70+ 7 2.4 7% 26 0.25% 40 0.38%
All ages 39 34.9 100% 369 0.35% 561 0.54%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 18 2021 6534 26121 196 72 358 530
January 19 2021 6543 26168 196 72 316 528
January 20 2021 6560 26237 197 74 296 493
January 21 2021 6599 26316 199 74 304 506
January 22 2021 6642 26392 200 76 299 466
January 23 2021 6657 26463 200 76 302 430
January 24 2021 6681 26515 200 76 252 417
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 1.7 7.5% 19 0.24% 31 0.4%
10-19 4 4.0 14.3% 36 0.43% 45 0.54%
20-29 2 2.7 10.3% 26 0.37% 47 0.66%
30-39 5 4.3 17.5% 44 0.52% 75 0.89%
40-49 5 3.9 15.1% 38 0.49% 69 0.89%
50-59 3 3.0 15.5% 39 0.4% 62 0.64%
60-69 0 1.9 8.7% 22 0.26% 39 0.46%
70+ 3 2.6 11.1% 28 0.39% 49 0.69%
All ages 24 24.0 100% 252 0.39% 417 0.64%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 18 2021 4911 17464 208 64 232 362
January 19 2021 4913 17478 209 65 208 346
January 20 2021 4929 17540 209 66 205 344
January 21 2021 4950 17565 210 66 213 321
January 22 2021 4984 17651 210 66 224 305
January 23 2021 5006 17686 212 68 234 301
January 24 2021 5024 17724 212 68 219 300
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 0.6 3.7% 8 0.15% 12 0.22%
10-19 1 2.7 17.8% 39 0.72% 45 0.83%
20-29 3 3.4 14.2% 31 0.69% 39 0.86%
30-39 3 2.3 11.4% 25 0.46% 38 0.7%
40-49 1 2.1 11.9% 26 0.52% 38 0.76%
50-59 4 2.7 17.4% 38 0.56% 54 0.8%
60-69 2 2.7 11% 24 0.38% 34 0.54%
70+ 2 2.7 12.8% 28 0.44% 40 0.63%
All ages 18 19.3 100% 219 0.48% 300 0.66%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 18 2021 11078 47454 284 67 485 771
January 19 2021 11102 47568 287 67 411 716
January 20 2021 11163 47693 287 68 446 681
January 21 2021 11193 47815 292 69 418 648
January 22 2021 11217 47967 292 69 400 624
January 23 2021 11279 48077 292 70 377 588
January 24 2021 11299 48149 293 70 372 582
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 3.1 8.9% 33 0.28% 42 0.36%
10-19 7 7.0 16.1% 60 0.36% 75 0.45%
20-29 5 6.3 16.4% 61 0.29% 109 0.51%
30-39 1 6.1 16.1% 60 0.44% 105 0.77%
40-49 4 6.0 14.8% 55 0.4% 87 0.64%
50-59 2 4.4 11.8% 44 0.31% 67 0.47%
60-69 0 3.7 9.7% 36 0.25% 58 0.41%
70+ 0 2.4 6.2% 23 0.18% 39 0.3%
All ages 20 39.1 100% 372 0.31% 582 0.49%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 18 2021 36522 302581 1091 218 1514 2509
January 19 2021 36563 303049 1099 218 1374 2421
January 20 2021 36589 303293 1108 228 1198 2252
January 21 2021 36746 304217 1109 228 1220 2023
January 22 2021 36944 305563 1112 228 1311 1936
January 23 2021 37078 307082 1115 229 1335 1889
January 24 2021 37193 308041 1121 231 1206 1802
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 4.7 4.9% 59 0.1% 92 0.15%
10-19 12 13.1 13% 157 0.22% 232 0.33%
20-29 37 27.0 24.9% 300 0.29% 439 0.42%
30-39 15 19.1 17.2% 207 0.27% 317 0.41%
40-49 18 14.0 13.6% 164 0.25% 238 0.36%
50-59 13 14.7 12.1% 146 0.22% 229 0.35%
60-69 8 8.7 8.3% 100 0.18% 148 0.27%
70+ 8 7.1 6.1% 73 0.15% 107 0.22%
All ages 115 108.6 100% 1206 0.22% 1802 0.33%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 18 2021 522877 2441843 23130 5470 20865 34939
January 19 2021 524402 2445399 23244 5512 19344 33061
January 20 2021 525924 2450522 23363 5562 19034 31177
January 21 2021 528101 2457032 23445 5607 19755 29563
January 22 2021 530171 2463344 23536 5643 19035 28159
January 23 2021 531852 2469123 23625 5685 18582 26794
January 24 2021 532971 2474335 23692 5691 16989 26081
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 59 93.1 6% 1011 0.16% 1528 0.24%
10-19 150 206.7 12.8% 2181 0.29% 3166 0.42%
20-29 190 259.7 16.5% 2799 0.37% 4421 0.58%
30-39 159 245.6 15.3% 2605 0.34% 3998 0.53%
40-49 136 210.9 13.2% 2237 0.32% 3528 0.5%
50-59 169 236.9 14.8% 2512 0.31% 3852 0.47%
60-69 145 180.9 11.5% 1951 0.26% 2998 0.4%
70+ 111 163.0 10% 1693 0.26% 2590 0.4%
All ages 1119 1596.7 100% 16989 0.29% 26081 0.45%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
53.6 56.6 55.4 34.9 53.3 24.1%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
64.5 24 41.1 27.3%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
66.3 19.3 26.7 31.8%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
49.2 45.3 51.2 39.1 60 25.1%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
33 32.6 42.3 108.6 200.9 11.3%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
44.8 41.8 58.4 1596.7 2646.1 23.4%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.61 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-14 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4878"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red