Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 18 2021 | 10124 | 44151 | 321 | 92 | 442 | 697 |
| January 19 2021 | 10133 | 44234 | 322 | 92 | 413 | 669 |
| January 20 2021 | 10177 | 44372 | 322 | 92 | 388 | 629 |
| January 21 2021 | 10233 | 44497 | 322 | 95 | 424 | 603 |
| January 22 2021 | 10271 | 44619 | 323 | 97 | 415 | 589 |
| January 23 2021 | 10311 | 44728 | 323 | 97 | 390 | 591 |
| January 24 2021 | 10350 | 44848 | 324 | 97 | 369 | 561 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 3.1 | 8.4% | 31 | 0.27% | 41 | 0.36% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 4.9 | 13.6% | 50 | 0.37% | 77 | 0.57% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 7.3 | 21.4% | 79 | 0.38% | 116 | 0.55% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 5.6 | 16.3% | 60 | 0.44% | 83 | 0.61% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 5.4 | 14.1% | 52 | 0.5% | 76 | 0.73% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3.3 | 9.8% | 36 | 0.29% | 71 | 0.57% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.9 | 9.5% | 35 | 0.3% | 57 | 0.5% |
| 70+ | 7 | 2.4 | 7% | 26 | 0.25% | 40 | 0.38% |
| All ages | 39 | 34.9 | 100% | 369 | 0.35% | 561 | 0.54% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 18 2021 | 6534 | 26121 | 196 | 72 | 358 | 530 |
| January 19 2021 | 6543 | 26168 | 196 | 72 | 316 | 528 |
| January 20 2021 | 6560 | 26237 | 197 | 74 | 296 | 493 |
| January 21 2021 | 6599 | 26316 | 199 | 74 | 304 | 506 |
| January 22 2021 | 6642 | 26392 | 200 | 76 | 299 | 466 |
| January 23 2021 | 6657 | 26463 | 200 | 76 | 302 | 430 |
| January 24 2021 | 6681 | 26515 | 200 | 76 | 252 | 417 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.7 | 7.5% | 19 | 0.24% | 31 | 0.4% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 4.0 | 14.3% | 36 | 0.43% | 45 | 0.54% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 2.7 | 10.3% | 26 | 0.37% | 47 | 0.66% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 4.3 | 17.5% | 44 | 0.52% | 75 | 0.89% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 3.9 | 15.1% | 38 | 0.49% | 69 | 0.89% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 3.0 | 15.5% | 39 | 0.4% | 62 | 0.64% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.9 | 8.7% | 22 | 0.26% | 39 | 0.46% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.6 | 11.1% | 28 | 0.39% | 49 | 0.69% |
| All ages | 24 | 24.0 | 100% | 252 | 0.39% | 417 | 0.64% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 18 2021 | 4911 | 17464 | 208 | 64 | 232 | 362 |
| January 19 2021 | 4913 | 17478 | 209 | 65 | 208 | 346 |
| January 20 2021 | 4929 | 17540 | 209 | 66 | 205 | 344 |
| January 21 2021 | 4950 | 17565 | 210 | 66 | 213 | 321 |
| January 22 2021 | 4984 | 17651 | 210 | 66 | 224 | 305 |
| January 23 2021 | 5006 | 17686 | 212 | 68 | 234 | 301 |
| January 24 2021 | 5024 | 17724 | 212 | 68 | 219 | 300 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 0.6 | 3.7% | 8 | 0.15% | 12 | 0.22% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 2.7 | 17.8% | 39 | 0.72% | 45 | 0.83% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 3.4 | 14.2% | 31 | 0.69% | 39 | 0.86% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 2.3 | 11.4% | 25 | 0.46% | 38 | 0.7% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 2.1 | 11.9% | 26 | 0.52% | 38 | 0.76% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 2.7 | 17.4% | 38 | 0.56% | 54 | 0.8% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.7 | 11% | 24 | 0.38% | 34 | 0.54% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.7 | 12.8% | 28 | 0.44% | 40 | 0.63% |
| All ages | 18 | 19.3 | 100% | 219 | 0.48% | 300 | 0.66% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 18 2021 | 11078 | 47454 | 284 | 67 | 485 | 771 |
| January 19 2021 | 11102 | 47568 | 287 | 67 | 411 | 716 |
| January 20 2021 | 11163 | 47693 | 287 | 68 | 446 | 681 |
| January 21 2021 | 11193 | 47815 | 292 | 69 | 418 | 648 |
| January 22 2021 | 11217 | 47967 | 292 | 69 | 400 | 624 |
| January 23 2021 | 11279 | 48077 | 292 | 70 | 377 | 588 |
| January 24 2021 | 11299 | 48149 | 293 | 70 | 372 | 582 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 3.1 | 8.9% | 33 | 0.28% | 42 | 0.36% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 7.0 | 16.1% | 60 | 0.36% | 75 | 0.45% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 6.3 | 16.4% | 61 | 0.29% | 109 | 0.51% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 6.1 | 16.1% | 60 | 0.44% | 105 | 0.77% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 6.0 | 14.8% | 55 | 0.4% | 87 | 0.64% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 4.4 | 11.8% | 44 | 0.31% | 67 | 0.47% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 3.7 | 9.7% | 36 | 0.25% | 58 | 0.41% |
| 70+ | 0 | 2.4 | 6.2% | 23 | 0.18% | 39 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 20 | 39.1 | 100% | 372 | 0.31% | 582 | 0.49% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 18 2021 | 36522 | 302581 | 1091 | 218 | 1514 | 2509 |
| January 19 2021 | 36563 | 303049 | 1099 | 218 | 1374 | 2421 |
| January 20 2021 | 36589 | 303293 | 1108 | 228 | 1198 | 2252 |
| January 21 2021 | 36746 | 304217 | 1109 | 228 | 1220 | 2023 |
| January 22 2021 | 36944 | 305563 | 1112 | 228 | 1311 | 1936 |
| January 23 2021 | 37078 | 307082 | 1115 | 229 | 1335 | 1889 |
| January 24 2021 | 37193 | 308041 | 1121 | 231 | 1206 | 1802 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.7 | 4.9% | 59 | 0.1% | 92 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 13.1 | 13% | 157 | 0.22% | 232 | 0.33% |
| 20-29 | 37 | 27.0 | 24.9% | 300 | 0.29% | 439 | 0.42% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 19.1 | 17.2% | 207 | 0.27% | 317 | 0.41% |
| 40-49 | 18 | 14.0 | 13.6% | 164 | 0.25% | 238 | 0.36% |
| 50-59 | 13 | 14.7 | 12.1% | 146 | 0.22% | 229 | 0.35% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 8.7 | 8.3% | 100 | 0.18% | 148 | 0.27% |
| 70+ | 8 | 7.1 | 6.1% | 73 | 0.15% | 107 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 115 | 108.6 | 100% | 1206 | 0.22% | 1802 | 0.33% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 18 2021 | 522877 | 2441843 | 23130 | 5470 | 20865 | 34939 |
| January 19 2021 | 524402 | 2445399 | 23244 | 5512 | 19344 | 33061 |
| January 20 2021 | 525924 | 2450522 | 23363 | 5562 | 19034 | 31177 |
| January 21 2021 | 528101 | 2457032 | 23445 | 5607 | 19755 | 29563 |
| January 22 2021 | 530171 | 2463344 | 23536 | 5643 | 19035 | 28159 |
| January 23 2021 | 531852 | 2469123 | 23625 | 5685 | 18582 | 26794 |
| January 24 2021 | 532971 | 2474335 | 23692 | 5691 | 16989 | 26081 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 59 | 93.1 | 6% | 1011 | 0.16% | 1528 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 150 | 206.7 | 12.8% | 2181 | 0.29% | 3166 | 0.42% |
| 20-29 | 190 | 259.7 | 16.5% | 2799 | 0.37% | 4421 | 0.58% |
| 30-39 | 159 | 245.6 | 15.3% | 2605 | 0.34% | 3998 | 0.53% |
| 40-49 | 136 | 210.9 | 13.2% | 2237 | 0.32% | 3528 | 0.5% |
| 50-59 | 169 | 236.9 | 14.8% | 2512 | 0.31% | 3852 | 0.47% |
| 60-69 | 145 | 180.9 | 11.5% | 1951 | 0.26% | 2998 | 0.4% |
| 70+ | 111 | 163.0 | 10% | 1693 | 0.26% | 2590 | 0.4% |
| All ages | 1119 | 1596.7 | 100% | 16989 | 0.29% | 26081 | 0.45% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53.6 | 56.6 | 55.4 | 34.9 | 53.3 | 24.1% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64.5 | 24 | 41.1 | 27.3% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66.3 | 19.3 | 26.7 | 31.8% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.2 | 45.3 | 51.2 | 39.1 | 60 | 25.1% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 32.6 | 42.3 | 108.6 | 200.9 | 11.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44.8 | 41.8 | 58.4 | 1596.7 | 2646.1 | 23.4% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.61 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-14 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4878"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges